Methodological Background for the ToC

Aiming to change complex systems represents a particularly difficult endeavour because this requires long- term impact, which is influenced by a number of confounding factors. A key challenge lies in the fact that actions need to be taken right now, while their actual effects are beyond the scope of the activity itself. What sounds rather abstract has been theorised by researchers and coined by the term “Theory of Change” (e.g. Claus & Belcher, 2020). Claus and Belcher (Fig. 1) differentiate between three spheres when aiming for long-term impact in complex systems: 

1. The Sphere of Control refers to all aspects a group can actually control, i.e. by conducting specific activities that lead to certain outputs. Since the members of this group are themselves active in these activities and produce these outputs, they can control how and what is done.

2. The Sphere of Influence is affected by the outputs of the Sphere of Control, but is not directly controlled by the group. Instead, the outputs of the Sphere of Control create or at least shape mid-term outcomes.

3. These outcomes (which are also influenced by other processes outside the group’s scope) ultimately influence the long-term impact the group seeks to achieve. This impact lies in the Sphere of Interest that is neither controlled by nor directly linked to the group, but only mediated through a chain of causal relationships.

The “Theory of Change” (ToC) method is a valuable tool for designing (“roadmapping”) and monitoring of system innovations. It allows individual steps and sub-measures to be captured and examined in a structured way, taking into account the respective impact relationships. Against this background, the ToC extends the perspective beyond the directly workable aspects of a project and includes parallel developments with regard to the overall goal orientation. In summary, the ToC has several functions: on the one hand, it creates structures and points out systemic weaknesses in the project. The development of a ToC is based on an iterative process that reflects measures and projects in relation to their effects and makes necessary upstream measures visible. On the other hand, it can be used as a communication tool, as it reduces complex transformation processes to their essentials. Finally, it provides starting points for the development of project performance indicators.

With regard to the project at hand and chemicals in global textile value chains, the project group does not have sufficient power and size to directly influence the entire system. The desired changes require complex, subsequent and long-term processes of which the project group can only control a small part. However, the key to unlocking the potential of this project is to understand the complex system and form a logical structure of how to most effectively influence these processes.